Every so often, I remember a critical idea every investor must know.
“If you can’t understand the catalyst that will move an investment in your favor, you are the catalyst of someone else’s profit. Even if you understand the catalyst, you will be wrong and must have a plan.
“Wall Street is pretty good about cleaning up the ill prepared.”
That’s from Howard Lindzon, co-founder of StockTwits, and it deserves to be written in stone.
Mr. Lindzon penned this gem a little over four years ago.
A whole bunch of people were betting big on Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ: PLUG) to keep up a massive upward run.
From the start of 2014 to March 7th, the share price rose a good 400%. All it took to deflate the bubble was one analyst to slap a 25% loss on people chasing the gains that day.
The crowd turned on the analyst to vent their collective outrage, and Mr. Lindzon took them to task.
No one wants to be the person left fuming and helpless. It would be a whole lot easier for us to avoid it if virtually everyone else didn’t seem to be sitting in the same boat right now.
But this is bound to happen in a confused market, and we have to adapt to survive.
Compressing the Spring
Judging by the kinds of reactions we’ve seen in recent years to good job reports like what we just saw on Friday. the Dow and S&P 500 should have tanked that day.
Instead, they shrugged at it, along with the continuing news about up to $267 billion new tariffs on China.
Apparently, the fear of strong reports like these no longer worries the market when it comes to an accelerating pace of interest rates from the Fed.
That is, after all, what has consistently been cited as the catalyst for all the previous “good news is bad news” drops.
Perhaps the climate is truly changing, but what is more likely is that the market has decided to muddy the waters and just kinda meander about just below all-time highs and at extreme valuations.
The direction isn’t clear, there is plenty of bullish and bearish sentiment, and people can’t find a clear signal from any major catalyst.
This will not last, and the longer the market takes to decide to move one way or the other, the faster it will do it.
It is a dangerous, but potentially lucrative, moment that comes with a lot of anxiety and stress.
So here we sit, not really having to worry about anything, at least if recent market reactions to what are major news stories continue to be so apathetic.
The longer we do, the more of a chance there is for us to lose sight of the catalysts that will propel our investments forward, and thus become someone else’s profit.
Our limited capacity to understand and prepare for whatever will happen puts us in a bad position to get caught with our pants down if we place large and broad bets on anything.
The Stock Picker’s Market
I don’t think we’re at a loss for something to do, though.
One of the beauties of investing is that you can make it as broad or granular as you want.
In this sense, we still have plenty of options, though we won’t know if we’ll get a bit of a boost from a tailwind or struggle with a headwind.
A sideways, uncertain market is a stock picker’s market. When the big picture doesn’t show you a catalyst you can understand, start drilling down.
Yes, the broader market will create headwinds and tailwinds, but making sure you know the catalysts that will help or hinder a company will give you a decisive advantage over the countless others who sit in place and wring their hands.
Our editors are doing that right now for their readers.
Jimmy Mengel is providing constant updates and guidance for the emerging cannabis sector.
Nick Hodge has uncovered what will probably become America’s largest gold mine.
And Gerardo Del Real just brought a fantastic opportunity in a under-appreciated metal to his readers.
Just remember, if you “can’t understand the catalyst that will move an investment in your favor, you are the catalyst of someone else’s profit.”
Act accordingly.
